Oil prices were trading higher and heading for their strongest weekly advance in weeks, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply disruptions — particularly related to Venezuela’s crude exports and broader risk factors affecting global crude markets. Benchmarks such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both rose as traders weighed these developments amid typically lighter holiday-season trading.

A primary driver of the recent price strength has been pressure on Venezuelan oil supply, stemming from heightened enforcement actions by the United States. U.S. authorities have targeted sanctioned tankers linked to Venezuelan exports, including pursuing and turning away vessels attempting to deliver crude. This has introduced a risk premium into markets, as operators and traders assess the potential for reduced flows of heavy crude from a country long plagued by sanctions and political instability.

Geopolitical developments beyond Venezuela have also played a role. Recent military activity in Nigeria and concerns about disruptions in other oil-producing regions have added to perceptions of potential supply volatility. Even where these events have not directly impacted major exporting infrastructure, the risk narrative has contributed to price support, particularly in a market that is sensitive to headline news when trading volumes are thin.

Though Venezuela itself accounts for only a small share of global supply on paper, traders are watching because even modest disruptions in crude flows can affect market psychology, especially when combined with broader uncertainties. That has helped crude futures consolidate near recent highs and claw back some losses from earlier in the quarter.

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At the same time, fundamental factors remain mixed. Forecasts for 2026 continue to point to a potential global surplus as supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers grows and demand uncertainties linger. This longer-term backdrop weighs on markets even as short-term geopolitical drivers provide intermittent lift.

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In summary, oil markets have posted weekly gains supported by geopolitical risk premiums, particularly related to U.S. actions affecting Venezuelan crude exports and other supply concerns. These influences have outweighed some bearish fundamentals in the near term, helping crude prices hold support as traders close books for the year.