Consulting firm Deloitte is maintaining its existing crude oil price outlook for 2026 and beyond, even in the wake of recent geopolitical developments that briefly roiled energy markets. Although oil prices briefly rose on renewed uncertainty around Venezuelan supply, the firm’s forecast remains anchored to fundamentals that point toward moderate pricing rather than a sharp breakout.

Deloitte’s latest energy forecast projects that oil prices will hover near US$58 per barrel in 2026, reflecting an environment where global supply continues to outpace demand, inventory levels stay ample, and crude markets remain well supplied. The firm’s view contrasts with more optimistic short-term price spikes driven by headlines, suggesting that temporary disruptions or political events are unlikely to shift the broader pricing trajectory materially over the next year.

Underlying Deloitte’s forecast is the recognition that structural oversupply will persist. Broad production from major exporters, including OPEC+ members and the United States, has kept barrels flowing at a pace that absorbs most demand growth. Even with intermittent disruptions — such as infrastructure challenges in certain producing nations — the net effect has not been enough to meaningfully tighten global balances over the medium term. Against that backdrop, Deloitte sees crude prices staying relatively range-bound rather than embarking on sustained rallies.

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Deloitte’s stance also reflects expectations for modest demand growth next year. While energy consumption continues to rise in emerging markets and segments such as petrochemicals, demand pressures are uneven, and efficiency gains or structural changes in energy use temper overall growth. In this context, a price environment close to Deloitte’s baseline forecast is consistent with a market where supply and demand remain more balanced than bullish narratives suggest.

It’s worth noting that headline-driven price moves — including short-term rallies tied to geopolitical events — can still occur. But Deloitte’s focus on medium-term fundamentals implies that such moves are likely to be temporary and price-limited, especially if structural oversupply persists and demand growth moderates.

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In summary, Deloitte’s unchanged forecast underscores the view that, despite intermittent geopolitical noise and headline volatility, oil prices in 2026 are more likely to reflect global supply dynamics and demand fundamentals than short-lived disruptions — resulting in a relatively moderate pricing environment centered around roughly US$58 per barrel.