Holiday Hiring Faces Headwinds as Labor Market Shows Strain

Despite expectations of busy holiday shopping, seasonal hiring in the U.S. appears subdued this year. Rising layoff announcements and a creeping unemployment rate have dampened the usual surge in temporary job opportunities, signaling that employers may be holding back on new hires. Data from multiple sources indicate that seasonal hiring plans are at some of the lowest levels in more than a decade.

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Retailers are expected to bring on significantly fewer seasonal workers compared to previous years. Estimates suggest that hiring for the holiday season could range between 265,000 and 365,000 positions, down from over 440,000 in the previous year. This slowdown contrasts with the ongoing high demand for work, as job seekers compete for listings that have only modestly increased and remain below pre-pandemic levels.

The pullback is especially evident in the retail sector, where opportunities have noticeably declined. While sectors like healthcare, food services, and social assistance have shown some employment growth, retail hiring has remained relatively flat. Big employers such as Target and Walmart are reportedly relying on their current workforce rather than aggressively expanding temporary staff, offering existing employees extra hours to manage holiday demand instead.

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Small businesses are also feeling the pinch, with many reporting reduced consumer spending and lower expectations for holiday sales. Only a small fraction are actively hiring, while some are even scaling back. Economic uncertainties, including concerns over tariffs and general consumer behavior, are contributing to a cautious approach to staffing.

Analysts note that while consumer spending is expected to remain steady, the broader uncertainty is causing companies to limit temporary employment. The combination of muted hiring plans, fewer opportunities, and ongoing economic pressures suggests that the labor market’s seasonal relief may be weaker than usual this year.

Overall, the 2025 holiday season could offer limited respite for workers seeking short-term employment. Job seekers may find competition stiff, and companies are carefully weighing staffing needs against market unpredictability, signaling a restrained labor market recovery during a critical retail period.