Shopify (TSX:SHOP) shares have slipped about 12% since reporting third-quarter results, but the decline has little to do with company fundamentals. In fact, Shopify delivered another strong quarter: gross merchandise volume rose 32%, revenue increased at the same pace, and free cash flow climbed 20% year over year. What surprised many investors was that Shopify’s financial performance showed no meaningful impact from the new Trump-era tariffs.
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Why the Stock Pulled Back
Despite healthy results, the stock dropped roughly 11% as broader market sentiment turned negative. The U.S. government had just emerged from a record 43-day shutdown, leaving policymakers without critical data on inflation, employment, and other indicators. The White House even warned that some of this information may never be released, creating an unusual level of uncertainty.
When key economic data goes missing, forecasting becomes nearly impossible—akin to driving with a blindfold. Until the administration restores normal operations, investors are likely to remain cautious, contributing to the recent pullback.
In the meantime, Shopify has entered its strongest seasonal period. The company is prepared for increased activity during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the stock’s decline may offer a compelling opportunity for investors looking to participate in a potential holiday-driven rally.
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Why Shopify Could Reach New Record Highs in 2026
Shopify has fully rebounded from the tech correction of 2022. During the pandemic, the company experienced a decade’s worth of growth in a single year, pushing the stock to a record high in November 2021. After returning to profitability, shareholders began to expect consistent positive earnings—something Shopify has delivered.
By October 2025, Shopify surpassed its 2021 peak, reaching $253.10 before slipping in November. There is a strong case that the stock could achieve a new all-time high again in February or November 2026, supported by three core catalysts.
- Sustained Profitability
Following several years of restructuring and new strategic initiatives, Shopify has now posted positive operating income for nine consecutive quarters. Profit and cash flow growth may fluctuate, but the company has demonstrated resilience, even in seasonally weaker periods. With expanding global operations shifting its annual demand peak from December to early February, Shopify is positioned for a more stable earnings trajectory. A typical 50% seasonal rally from October to January could help push the stock to another record level.
- Accelerating AI Adoption
Shopify is aggressively integrating artificial intelligence into its ecosystem. AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores has jumped sevenfold since January, while AI-generated orders are up eleven times. A new partnership with OpenAI will also allow merchants to sell directly through ChatGPT, with the impact expected to be reflected in 2026 GMV and revenue.
- Growing Roster of Major Brands
Shopify continues to strengthen its value proposition as an end-to-end commerce platform. It is increasingly attracting large, globally recognized brands, with Estée Lauder being the standout win last quarter. These enterprise-level clients not only contribute significantly to GMV but also tend to adopt the full suite of Shopify services, lifting overall revenue.
With strong fundamentals, rising profitability, rapid AI-powered enhancements, and major brand adoption, Shopify appears well positioned to set a fresh all-time high in 2026.
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