Table of Contents

Market Context
What Happened
Why It Matters
Sector Breakdown
Risks to Watch
What to Watch Next
Final Outlook

Market Context

The past three trading days encapsulate the defining challenge of technology investing in September 2026. On Tuesday September 1, the TSX fell 444 points and technology stocks retreated alongside gold and broader equities as oil surged to US$90.22 on renewed U.S. strikes against Iran. On Thursday September 3, the TSX surged 458 points after Fed Governor Christopher Waller explicitly said he was “inclined to be patient on monetary policy” and would support holding rates steady in September if inflation continues improving — a statement that slashed September rate-hike odds from 63% to around 50% and triggered an immediate rally in long-duration growth assets. Shopify (TSX:SHOP) rose 2.3% and Celestica (TSX:CLS) soared 11.3% in Thursday’s session alone, recovering a substantial portion of the week’s earlier losses. The TSX technology sub-index demonstrated in a single week both the brutal downside sensitivity and the sharp recovery potential that characterise growth equity investing in the current macro environment.

The broader context for Canadian technology stocks heading into Friday’s NFP session is more constructive than it was a week ago. Waller’s Thursday comments — which followed a pattern similar to Fed Governor remarks earlier in the year that successfully cooled hike expectations — have given investors a framework: a weak or in-line August NFP consolidates the hold case; a strong jobs number revives the hike case. For technology stocks, the direction of that binary is straightforward. A weak NFP — consistent with the 56,000 consensus estimate — would confirm the dovish pivot and likely extend Thursday’s gains. A strong number would push bond yields higher, compress growth multiples, and create another Tuesday-style sell-off in the stocks that moved most sharply on Thursday.

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What makes Friday analytically interesting is that Celestica’s fundamentals are genuinely exceptional regardless of the macro direction. The company revised its 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to CA$11.30 from CA$10.15, its free cash flow target to CA$600 million from CA$500 million, and is guiding 190% year-over-year revenue growth in its Enterprise segment for Q3 2026. Those numbers reflect real AI compute hardware demand from hyperscalers — demand that does not disappear because the Fed held rates. The question for investors is whether the 11.3% single-session gain has already captured that fundamental value, or whether the earnings trajectory justifies further appreciation.

What Happened

On Thursday September 3, Celestica soared 11.3% in one of the TSX’s most dramatic single-session technology moves of 2026. The surge reflected two simultaneous tailwinds: the macro repricing from Waller’s dovish comments reducing the discount rate applied to Celestica’s future earnings, and investors taking a fresh look at the company’s fundamental guidance — 2026 adjusted EPS of CA$11.30, a 78.6% projected EPS gain for the year, and 190% Enterprise segment revenue growth targeted for Q3. At a forward P/E of 27.7 times that guidance, the valuation appears reasonable to growth-oriented analysts given the earnings trajectory. Shopify rose 2.3% in the same session, recovering from Tuesday’s macro-driven decline, as U.S. technology hyperscalers also rallied on Waller’s comments. The tech sector’s Thursday surge stands in sharp contrast to Tuesday’s retreat, confirming that the sector’s near-term direction is almost entirely rate-expectation driven rather than fundamental-earnings driven — a distinction that matters enormously for investors choosing between the sector’s high-multiple and lower-multiple names.

Why It Matters

Celestica’s Fundamental Case Has Separated From Its Macro Trading Pattern

The 11.3% Thursday gain in Celestica reflected a combination of macro repricing and genuine fundamental re-rating that investors should analyse separately. The macro component — lower discount rates applying to future earnings — affects every technology stock simultaneously. The fundamental component — 190% Enterprise revenue growth guidance, CA$11.30 EPS guidance, CA$600 million FCF target — is Celestica-specific and represents one of the strongest guidance revisions in the TSX technology sector this year. When both components move simultaneously in the same direction, the resulting price move can appear extreme. But the fundamental component does not reverse when the next NFP number comes in strong; it remains embedded in the company’s earnings trajectory regardless of Fed rate decisions. Investors who understand that distinction are better positioned to assess whether Thursday’s close represents a starting point or an endpoint for Celestica’s 2026 appreciation.

Shopify’s Recovery Confirms Platform Stickiness Is the Real Story

Shopify’s 2.3% recovery on Thursday confirms that the stock’s 3.8% decline on August 31 was macro-driven rather than fundamental. The merchant platform’s operational metrics — approximately 90% of revenue from established customers, AI-enhanced tools like Shopify Magic strengthening merchant productivity and retention, and the Shopline legal settlement having removed a key overhang — are unchanged from last week. The week’s volatility tested whether Shopify would find buyers near the CA$200 level, and Thursday’s session showed that it did. The question for the longer term remains whether the current multiple — which reflects expectations of continued 20%+ revenue growth — can be sustained into a macro environment where bond yields may drift higher if trade-war inflation passes through to core CPI.

Sector Breakdown

The TSX technology sector heading into Friday’s NFP release presents a hierarchy of rate sensitivity and fundamental quality. Celestica sits at the top of the fundamental story — genuine AI infrastructure hardware demand generating 190% Enterprise revenue growth and 78.6% EPS growth — with its valuation of 27.7 times forward earnings appearing defensible given that trajectory. Shopify carries the highest absolute valuation premium and the most direct rate sensitivity given its long-duration growth multiple, but also the most resilient business model for the domestic macro environment — merchant platform fees and Shopify Payments revenues do not require a strong U.S. economy to grow. Constellation Software (TSX:CSU), trading at approximately 19 times forward P/E with 57% EPS growth, offers what CEO Mark Miller characterised as an AI adoption framework — using AI tools to demonstrate value to clients — rather than building AI infrastructure. That positioning carries lower macro risk but also less direct AI revenue upside. BlackBerry (TSX:BB) had surged 10.8% in a recent pre-Waller session and is now approaching its September 24 earnings date — the most important company-specific catalyst remaining in September for the TSX technology universe.

Risks to Watch

Today’s U.S. August NFP release is the single most important near-term risk for TSX technology stocks. BofA Securities has noted that a payrolls number in line with expectations would give the Fed space for three rate hikes over the rest of 2026 — a scenario that would significantly compress growth multiples across the technology sector. If the number comes in stronger than the 56,000 consensus, the dovish repricing of Thursday could reverse quickly, creating the same kind of sell-off seen on August 31. Celestica’s 11.3% gain in a single session creates a high base for any subsequent catalyst to justify — Q3 results will need to demonstrate that the 190% Enterprise revenue growth guidance is tracking on plan. Shopify faces specific risk from Canada’s retaliatory tariffs taking effect September 8, which may reduce cross-border merchant activity. BlackBerry’s September 24 earnings must sustain the physical AI transformation narrative that drove its summer re-rating.

What to Watch Next

The NFP release at 8:30 a.m. ET today is the immediate catalyst. The FOMC September 15–16 decision will resolve the September hike question definitively, clearing the near-term rate uncertainty that is the sector’s primary valuation driver. BlackBerry’s September 24 earnings are the most important single company-specific event remaining in September for Canadian technology investors. Celestica’s Q3 results — expected in October — will be the first opportunity to confirm whether the 190% Enterprise revenue growth guidance is materialising. Shopify’s merchant activity metrics and gross merchandise volume trends through September will inform the October earnings outlook.

Also Read: Best long term Canadian stocks

Final Outlook

Thursday’s 11.3% Celestica surge and Shopify’s 2.3% recovery confirm that the TSX technology sector maintains genuine momentum when the macro environment — specifically rate expectations — moves in its favour. The week’s volatility, while uncomfortable, has provided important information: when Waller speaks dovishly, these stocks bounce hard; when rate-hike fears build, they retreat sharply. That sensitivity is the defining characteristic of high-multiple growth investing in the current environment.

The underlying business fundamentals — Celestica’s AI hardware demand, Shopify’s merchant platform stickiness, Constellation’s compounding acquisition model, BlackBerry’s QNX automotive franchise — have not changed during this week’s volatility. What has changed is the discount rate applied to those fundamentals, and that rate depends directly on today’s NFP number.

Verdict: Cautiously constructive on Celestica’s fundamental AI infrastructure thesis. Shopify and Constellation are quality long-term holds. Near-term direction depends on this morning’s NFP release — investors should wait for the data before adding new positions.