Table of Contents

Market Context
What Happened
Why It Matters
Sector Breakdown
Risks to Watch
What to Watch Next
Final Outlook

Market Context

Canada’s growth stock landscape continues to expand beyond the technology-first framework that has dominated the U.S. growth narrative. While Shopify (TSX:SHOP) and BlackBerry (TSX:BB) represent the TSX’s most prominent software-led growth stories, the broader Canadian growth universe includes a set of engineering, nuclear, and space-technology companies that are building durable competitive positions in sectors with structural multi-decade demand tailwinds. That diversity is becoming a source of analytical interest — and increasingly, of institutional capital allocation — as investors look for growth stories that are not dependent on the hyperscaler AI spending cycle that has created volatility in U.S. technology names.

The macro backdrop shifted constructively for growth equities last week. The U.S. June jobs miss reduced Fed rate-hike expectations and weakened the dollar, which collectively supports growth equity valuations through lower discount rates and improved sentiment toward long-duration assets. The TSX closed at a record high of 35,274.84 on July 3, with all ten sectors in the green and the consumer discretionary sector — which includes technology-adjacent growth names — gaining 0.8%. The rate repricing was particularly meaningful for capital-intensive growth companies like AtkinsRéalis, whose project finance economics improve when bond yields moderate.

Canada’s GDP recovery — April’s 0.5% monthly expansion and preliminary May growth of 0.1% — provides a domestic economic foundation for growth companies with significant Canadian revenue components. Meanwhile, the GFL Environmental take-private story illustrated that private capital is pricing Canadian growth companies with recurring revenues at meaningful premiums to their public market valuations — a dynamic that should inform how investors think about intrinsic value relative to current TSX prices for companies with similar characteristics.

Also Read: Best long term Canadian stocks

What Happened

AtkinsRéalis (TSX:ATRL) was one of Friday’s standout performers, rising 3.6% after the company confirmed that Turkey could begin formal talks on a CANDU nuclear power plant following an early reactor review expected later this summer. That gain extended the company’s momentum following its June 24 Notice of Intent filing with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to begin CANDU licensing — a move that generated a 9.6% gain in the session following its announcement. AtkinsRéalis now carries a nuclear backlog of CA$5.6 billion, with nuclear segment EBITDA margins of 25% — among the highest in its business mix. MDA Space (TSX:MDA), the satellite and space systems company, also remained in focus this week after its June 19 announcement of the acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies from RTX Corp. for US$620 million in cash. MDA ended Q1 with a C$3.7 billion backlog, Q1 revenue of C$464 million, and adjusted EBITDA of C$91 million. The Blue Canyon deal adds approximately C$4.9 billion to MDA’s opportunity pipeline and positions it as a more vertically integrated space systems provider. Shopify (TSX:SHOP) continues to approach its July 29 earnings report with the Shopline settlement resolved and a product modernisation milestone completed.

Why It Matters

AtkinsRéalis Is the TSX’s Emerging Nuclear Growth Story

The Turkey development — potentially formal talks on a CANDU nuclear plant after an early reactor review — represents the third major CANDU-related catalyst in recent weeks: the U.S. NRC filing, the Turkey announcement, and the company’s broader positioning across UK government frameworks. What is being built is not a single contract win but a recurring international franchise: CANDU technology, already validated across five countries, is being presented as the solution for an AI-driven electricity demand surge that has overwhelmed conventional grid expansion timelines. Simply Wall St’s analysis projects AtkinsRéalis revenue of CA$13.8 billion and earnings of CA$898.7 million by 2029, implying a fair value of CA$114.53 — a 28% premium to recent trading levels. Investors should weigh that upside against the acknowledged risks: average annual earnings declines expected over three years by some analysts, and significant insider selling that has been noted in recent months.

MDA’s Blue Canyon Bet Extends the Space Technology Growth Narrative

MDA’s acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies from RTX adds a smallsat bus manufacturing capability to MDA’s existing radar and satellite systems portfolio. Blue Canyon’s technology is used by NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, and commercial operators — a customer base that provides regulatory credibility and multi-year visibility. The deal is being financed with senior secured debt that keeps 2026 pro-forma leverage within MDA’s 1.5 to 2.5 times EBITDA target, suggesting management has been disciplined about capital structure even as the strategic rationale is ambitious. With a C$3.7 billion existing backlog and C$4.9 billion of incremental pipeline from the deal, MDA is building a scale of operations that begins to attract a different category of institutional investor.

Sector Breakdown

The TSX growth universe heading into mid-July presents distinct sub-themes. The nuclear and clean energy theme — anchored by AtkinsRéalis — is the most actively developing growth story, with Turkey and U.S. regulatory milestones providing a news flow that is keeping the stock in investor focus. The space technology theme — led by MDA — is at an earlier stage of investor recognition, with the Blue Canyon deal giving the company a larger addressable market but also a more complex integration challenge. The software theme — Shopify approaching July 29 earnings, BlackBerry heading toward its September 24 results — remains the most visible Canadian technology growth category for international investors. Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) continues compounding quietly through its vertical market software acquisition model, with Q1 2026 showing net income up 170% year-over-year. Descartes Systems (TSX:DSG) and Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) represent additional technology growth names that investors are watching for Q2 earnings catalysts.

Risks to Watch

AtkinsRéalis carries a nuanced risk profile: the nuclear backlog is real and the margins are strong, but large government nuclear contracts are lumpy, politically sensitive, and subject to long regulatory timelines. The company’s analyst consensus shows projected average annual earnings declines of 23.5% over three years — a figure that appears to reflect the irregular revenue recognition of major project completions rather than a deteriorating business, but investors should understand that dynamic before drawing conclusions from forward earnings estimates alone. Significant recent insider selling is also a watchpoint. For MDA, the Blue Canyon acquisition at US$620 million — funded primarily with debt — introduces integration risk and leverage that may be tested if the space technology market experiences a spending pullback. Shopify’s July 29 earnings face a market that has partially priced in a positive outcome following the Shopline settlement and stock rally; any top-line miss would be punished quickly.

Also Read: Best long term Canadian stocks

What to Watch Next

AtkinsRéalis investors should watch for any formal announcement from Turkey on the CANDU review timeline and for further detail on U.S. NRC pre-application engagement. MDA’s next earnings release will provide the first post-Blue Canyon opportunity to assess integration progress and updated backlog metrics. Shopify’s July 29 earnings — with analyst consensus expecting Q2 revenue of approximately US$3.33 billion — is the biggest single-company growth event on the TSX calendar for the month. BlackBerry’s September 24 earnings date is the next test of whether the company’s physical AI re-rating has fundamental backing.

Final Outlook

Canada’s growth stock sector is becoming more interesting precisely because its internal diversity is growing. AtkinsRéalis and MDA represent growth paths that are entirely independent of the Silicon Valley technology cycle — they are engineering and infrastructure companies addressing electricity demand and space system needs that are driven by structural forces rather than sentiment. Shopify and BlackBerry represent the software-led growth category, delivering genuine fundamental results in 2026.

The common thread across these names is that they are growing from a position of operational credibility rather than blue-sky projection. That is the right foundation for growth investing in a market where valuation discipline matters more than it has in several years.