Table of Contents

Market Context
What Happened
Why It Matters
Sector Breakdown
Risks to Watch
What to Watch Next
Final Outlook

Market Context

Canadian growth stocks reopen today in a September that presents their most challenging near-term environment of 2026. The combination of a 162,000 U.S. August NFP — nearly triple the consensus forecast — pushing September Fed rate-hike odds to approximately 60%, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs taking effect today, and a domestic employment decline of 41,700 in August creates a macro cocktail that is directly hostile to the high multiples that define growth equity valuations. Higher discount rates — the mechanical consequence of higher bond yields from Fed rate hikes — compress the present value of future earnings streams, which hits long-duration growth stocks harder than income stocks or value names. That mathematics is not new, but its application is unusually acute in September 2026.

The analytical challenge is separating the macro-driven multiple compression from the underlying earnings quality of individual companies. September 4 — the final trading day before the Labour Day break — provided a useful preview of how this separation plays out in practice. On that session, technology stocks were “mostly lower amid weakness among US hyperscalers,” with Shopify edging lower and Constellation Software declining 0.6%. In contrast, Celestica added 1.1%, tracking strength among chipmakers — its AI hardware demand story proving more resilient to the macro headwinds than platform software names because its revenue is directly tied to hyperscaler capital expenditure that is continuing regardless of rate expectations. That internal differentiation — between AI infrastructure builders and AI tool users — is the defining analytical frame for Canadian growth stocks in September.

The August 24 precedent — the first day the TSX reopened following the initial round of U.S. tariffs — is instructive for today’s setup. The market absorbed the tariff shock and closed higher, lifted by financials and materials. The same sector logic applies today: growth stocks that are insulated from direct tariff exposure in their revenue streams — Celestica selling hardware to U.S. hyperscalers, Shopify serving global merchants on its platform, MDA Space delivering satellite systems to government and commercial customers — can continue their fundamental earnings trajectories even as Canada-U.S. trade tensions escalate.

What Happened

In the final trading sessions before Labour Day, Celestica (TSX:CLS) added 1.1% on September 4, tracking strength among chipmakers and outperforming the broader technology sector. This move extended the context established by Celestica’s extraordinary guidance revision earlier in August — 2026 full-year adjusted EPS raised to CA$11.30 from CA$10.15, FCF guidance raised to CA$600 million from CA$500 million, and 190% year-over-year Enterprise segment revenue growth targeted for Q3 2026. Shopify (TSX:SHOP) edged lower on September 4 alongside weakness in U.S. hyperscalers, consistent with the pattern of the broader technology sector’s rate sensitivity rather than any Shopify-specific negative development. Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) declined 0.6%, while MDA Space (TSX:MDA) — which announced the acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies from RTX Corp. for US$620 million — enters September with a C$3.7 billion backlog and a C$4.9 billion additional opportunity pipeline from the Blue Canyon deal. BlackBerry (TSX:BB) approaches its September 24 earnings date as the most important company-specific catalyst remaining for Canadian technology investors in September.

Why It Matters

Celestica’s AI Hardware Revenue Is Rate-Insensitive in Its Core Driver

The analytical distinction between Celestica and other technology growth names is fundamental: Celestica’s Enterprise segment revenue — projected at 190% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 — is driven by physical orders from hyperscaler customers for AI server hardware. Those orders are placed months in advance, based on AI infrastructure build plans that are not affected by a 25-basis-point Fed rate adjustment. When the Fed hikes, Celestica’s September-quarter orders do not get cancelled. That makes Celestica’s near-term revenue trajectory more durable against rate-hike headwinds than a platform software company whose valuation depends on investors paying a high multiple on future earnings that are years away. Celestica’s forward P/E of 27.7 times its CA$11.30 guidance is reasonable given the earnings growth rate — and the guidance is backed by specific customer orders rather than revenue projections.

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BlackBerry’s September 24 Earnings Are the Month’s Defining Canadian Technology Event

BlackBerry’s transformation — 26% Q1 revenue growth, 144% EBITDA growth, first cash-positive Q1 in nine years, and its physical AI QNX platform now embedded in over 235 million vehicles globally — has generated one of the most dramatic fundamental re-ratings in TSX technology history. Multiple analyst firms including Stifel, CIBC, Raymond James, Canaccord, and TD Securities raised price targets following Q1. The September 24 Q2 results will test whether that trajectory is sustained, accelerated, or normalised. The bar is high: the market has priced continued strong performance into the stock following its summer surge. A revenue miss — even modest — would likely trigger a sharp correction given the premium multiple the re-rating commands.

Sector Breakdown

Canada’s growth stock landscape entering September 8 divides along the familiar AI infrastructure-versus-AI adoption boundary. Celestica sits squarely in the infrastructure category — manufacturing the servers on which AI runs — and its revenue is the most directly confirmed by hardware orders and guidance revisions. Shopify represents the platform adoption category, using AI as a merchant productivity enhancement rather than as core infrastructure; its tariff risk from reduced cross-border merchant activity is the most specific new risk introduced by September 8’s counter-tariff implementation. Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) is the compounder — acquiring vertical market software businesses and operating them with capital discipline, using AI as an enhancing tool for client-facing products rather than as a revenue driver. MDA Space represents the space technology category — physical infrastructure with government and commercial satellite system demand — and its C$3.7 billion backlog provides revenue visibility regardless of macro volatility. BlackBerry is the physical AI category in automotive and security software, with its September 24 earnings as the critical validation event.

Risks to Watch

The September 16 FOMC rate hike — at 60% probability — is the dominant near-term risk for Canadian growth stock multiples. A confirmed hike would push bond yields higher, compressing the present value of future earnings and creating selling pressure across the high-multiple growth names. Shopify faces specific risk from Canada’s September 8 counter-tariffs: Canadian merchants selling cross-border to U.S. consumers through the Shopify platform may see reduced order volumes if retaliatory tariffs make Canadian goods more expensive in U.S. markets or if U.S. consumers reduce cross-border discretionary spending. BlackBerry’s September 24 earnings carry execution risk — the company’s Q1 extraordinary results set a high bar, and any Q2 deceleration would be punished significantly. MDA Space’s Blue Canyon integration — a US$620 million deal funded primarily with debt — requires successful execution in an environment where debt financing costs are elevated and the space technology market’s commercial demand assumptions are still being validated.

What to Watch Next

BlackBerry’s September 24 earnings are the most important company-specific growth stock catalyst in September. September 11 U.S. CPI will determine whether the September 16 FOMC hike is confirmed. Celestica’s Q3 results — expected in October — will be the first confirmation of whether the 190% Enterprise revenue guidance is tracking to plan. Shopify’s gross merchandise volume data and any merchant commentary on cross-border tariff impacts will be important signals for the October earnings report. MDA Space’s next quarterly results will provide the first comprehensive post-Blue Canyon acquisition financial profile, including updated backlog and EBITDA margin data.

Final Outlook

Canadian growth stocks enter September 8 navigating a genuinely more challenging macro environment than the one that powered their summer gains. The 162,000 NFP and 60% September hike probability represent a real headwind for high-multiple valuations. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs introduce specific risks for Shopify’s cross-border merchant revenue. BlackBerry faces a high expectations bar heading into September 24. These are not dismissible concerns.

The constructive offset is company-level: Celestica’s AI hardware demand is confirmed by specific customer orders and guidance revisions. BlackBerry’s physical AI automotive franchise has institutional analyst support from five firms that raised price targets post-Q1. Constellation Software’s compounding acquisition model generates earnings that are structurally independent of monthly macro data releases. Quality earns its premium over time, even when the near-term rate environment temporarily compresses multiples.

Verdict: Neutral on broad TSX growth stock exposure heading into September 16 FOMC. Celestica’s AI infrastructure thesis remains the most directly validated by current earnings data. BlackBerry into September 24 earnings is the month’s most important company-specific catalyst. Shopify and Constellation are quality long-term holds; new position additions should await September 16 discount rate clarity.